Originally posted December 30, 2008
Everyone is making their 2009 online predictions these days, so I’d thought I’d throw my hat in the ring. Here are my online marketing and social media predictions for the new year. Tell me what you think will happen in the comments below. PS – I’ve made it super easy to comment. You can now login using your Facebook profile. No fuss, no mess.
1. Twitter finds a way to make money. I don’t think this will be through advertising. I envision a subscription model based exclusive content and features. This could be in the form of storage for music and photos or the ability to record and host videos.
2. Google will make a large acquisition of a TV network which will allow them to (1) further blur the lines between the different types of media we consume and (2) sell a larger market of TV ads on an auction basis.
3. Social networks become a thing of the past…..kinda. The web itself becomes a social network as sites take the first step with integrating Google Friend Connect and Facebook Connect. Content will no longer live behind the walled gardens of Facebook and MySpace. I think Google will be the first to make significant strides in this direction.
4. Media companies will continue to pump out free content, but will look beyond advertising as a business model. They will tie-in more exclusive deals with content distributors, makers and services.
5. The death of the banner ad. As online budgets shrink, more and more companies will move away from the typical banner ad and move to better integrate advertisements as content. Companies will work to expand customer ‘experiences’ over simply advertising.
6. More advertisers will begin to negotiate on a cost-per-action basis (where the advertiser pays for each specified action linked to the advertisement such as a purchase or form submission) rather than the traditional CPM or CPC model.
7. Grainy, low-quality web video will finally see its demise. 2009 will be the year of HD web video.
8. YouTube becomes the new Google. Users (beginning with the younger crowd) will start their queries at YouTube instead of a traditional search engine. Advertisers will shift funds to this channel.
9. Hot job trend will be for companies to hire community managers more often as voices for their brand. People like Matt Cutts , Jerimiah Owyang or Dave Delaney will be the passionate individuals employed to help evangelize brands and serve as the main community figurehead. Smart organizations will realize that social media efforts come from all areas of the organization.
10. As more smart phones such as the iPhone, G1 and Blackberry enter the market, Google will work to control the platforms and mechanisms we use to surf the mobile web. This will lead to Google leading and controlling the mobile advertising market. Expect a big announcement in terms of mobile advertising before June.
11. As more advertisers shift budgets online, the PPC market becomes very crowded. Increased competition over the same keywords mean that companies will need to work on capitalizing (and customizing) every click and customer interaction. Marketers that fail to do this will see click cost and cost-per-acquisition (CPA) begin to erode and eat away their once stable profits.
12. Google project that fails in 2009: Knol
13. Second Life use plummets
