Looking Back On My 2009 Predictions
Last December, I made predictions for 2009 on what I thought would happen in the world of online marketing and social media. Some were totally off, some were pretty good and a few of my other predictions were totally lame. Here are the highlights;
My 2009 predictions
1. Twitter finds a way to make money. I thought they would start some sort of subscription based model based on exclusive content and features.
Results - Well, we have some time before the end of 2009 and even though the rumors about Twitter’s supposed business model change with the winds, it doesn’t look like this particular subscription model is going to come to fruition. I will say that I am disappointed that Twitter is basically the same service they were last year minus the lists and retweets, but hey, that functionality was already in place by outside applications. In the end – FAIL
2. Google makes a large TV network acquisition.
Results – Google has been busy this year, but this type of acquisition was not one of them. FAIL.
3. Social networks become a thing of the past. I thought that Facebook and Google Friend Connect would help free content from behind the walled gardens.
Results – More and more sites are integration social tools that tap into these larger network and with the addition of Google Profiles and Social Search, the web itself is becoming more social. I still think Facebook can open up a bit, but in my humble opinion I think I got one right – WIN.
7. Low quality web video will hit the road and HD content will be the new cool.
Results – This is probably a push, but I’m going to give myself some credit. Is web video still grainy, hard to hear and of poor quality? To that I would say yes, but to counterpoint, its much better than we’ve seen in the past. Earlier this month YouTube announced that they’re bringing 1080p resolution to the web and with the addition of the iPhone 3GS and Flip HD cameras show that things are looking up for HD. Final call – WIN.
10. More smart phones will hit the market and Google will look to control the mobile advertising market.
Results – It took almost 11 months, but I’m fairly confident that the addition of AdMob has sealed this prediction. The mobile advertising arena in 2010 is going to be exciting to watch as Google looks to bring more effective tools for creating, serving and analyzing mobile ad formats. I’m a WINNER on this.
13. Second Life use would take a downward spiral.
Results – Linden Labs, the folks behind Second Life claim that user hours and transactions were very healthy in 2009 – something that Nielson had some doubts about. Traffic to SecondLife.com is down this year, but the virtual world is still alive and kicking. Me=FAIL.
