Everyone and their brother seem to be doing online marketing and social media predictions for 2010 so I thought I’d dust off my crystal ball and take a deep look into what I think the new year will hold. In the spirit of your sanity I kept each prediction to 140 characters or less (I thought this was a novel idea, but it looks like TrendSpotting beat me to it). Let’s hope these are better than last year.
My predictions
- Everybody gets their own iPhone and mobile app. Sites like MotherApp, GameSalad and Swebapps make it too easy.
- Apple, Facebook or Google will open up and allow publishers to do micro transactions across web with ID & buy digital content everywhere.
- Google Nexus One phone = game changer. Google will disrupt wireless industry, create new business model for cell phones.
- Buzzword of the year will be “experience.” Companies figure how to create engaging touches & inject customer love in every level/dept.
- ^^ above companies forced to create small hybrid groups of PR, Mkting, HR & Cust Service focused on set of clients rather than specific duty
- Adwords gets a 2010 upgrade – smarter, better customer choice, maybe even image ads in results…gasp. Advertisers forced to get better.
- Advertisers & Marketers will put QR codes everywhere – ads, websites, physical products. Objects will all be connected & enhance experience.
- SEO gets disrupted because of personalized search and Google Caffeine. Folks who dominated will whine as they lose position.
Predictions from friends
- @clayhebert - Consolidation, mainstream adoption, snake oil exposed, budgets shift from trad to digital, real experts valued & rewarded
- @buckdaddy – Whrrl beat FourSqaure in location based social network. FTC rules will hurt 1 person badly like w music piracy. Available SM jobs will grow
- @jtrigsby – Multiple feeds will converge and enable filtering to produce a more usable life stream of information. Some are doing it now, look for more
- @skippytpe – Social games continue further into meat-space. Mobile media consumption continues to outstrip capacity. Revolution: there’s an app for that.
- @jtrigsby – Number of followers will become less important than quality of friends. Numbers will still be important though, so maybe friend tiers?
Give me your thoughts/predictions/wishes in the comments below.
Last December, I made predictions for 2009 on what I thought would happen in the world of online marketing and social media. Some were totally off, some were pretty good and a few of my other predictions were totally lame. Here are the highlights;
My 2009 predictions
1. Twitter finds a way to make money. I thought they would start some sort of subscription based model based on exclusive content and features.
Results - Well, we have some time before the end of 2009 and even though the rumors about Twitter’s supposed business model change with the winds, it doesn’t look like this particular subscription model is going to come to fruition. I will say that I am disappointed that Twitter is basically the same service they were last year minus the lists and retweets, but hey, that functionality was already in place by outside applications. In the end – FAIL
2. Google makes a large TV network acquisition.
Results – Google has been busy this year, but this type of acquisition was not one of them. FAIL.
3. Social networks become a thing of the past. I thought that Facebook and Google Friend Connect would help free content from behind the walled gardens.
Results – More and more sites are integration social tools that tap into these larger network and with the addition of Google Profiles and Social Search, the web itself is becoming more social. I still think Facebook can open up a bit, but in my humble opinion I think I got one right – WIN.
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Originally posted December 30, 2008
Everyone is making their 2009 online predictions these days, so I’d thought I’d throw my hat in the ring. Here are my online marketing and social media predictions for the new year. Tell me what you think will happen in the comments below. PS – I’ve made it super easy to comment. You can now login using your Facebook profile. No fuss, no mess.
1. Twitter finds a way to make money. I don’t think this will be through advertising. I envision a subscription model based exclusive content and features. This could be in the form of storage for music and photos or the ability to record and host videos.
2. Google will make a large acquisition of a TV network which will allow them to (1) further blur the lines between the different types of media we consume and (2) sell a larger market of TV ads on an auction basis.
3. Social networks become a thing of the past…..kinda. The web itself becomes a social network as sites take the first step with integrating Google Friend Connect and Facebook Connect. Content will no longer live behind the walled gardens of Facebook and MySpace. I think Google will be the first to make significant strides in this direction.
4. Media companies will continue to pump out free content, but will look beyond advertising as a business model. They will tie-in more exclusive deals with content distributors, makers and services.
5. The death of the banner ad. As online budgets shrink, more and more companies will move away from the typical banner ad and move to better integrate advertisements as content. Companies will work to expand customer ‘experiences’ over simply advertising.
6. More advertisers will begin to negotiate on a cost-per-action basis (where the advertiser pays for each specified action linked to the advertisement such as a purchase or form submission) rather than the traditional CPM or CPC model.
7. Grainy, low-quality web video will finally see its demise. 2009 will be the year of HD web video.
8. YouTube becomes the new Google. Users (beginning with the younger crowd) will start their queries at YouTube instead of a traditional search engine. Advertisers will shift funds to this channel.
9. Hot job trend will be for companies to hire community managers more often as voices for their brand. People like Matt Cutts , Jerimiah Owyang or Dave Delaney will be the passionate individuals employed to help evangelize brands and serve as the main community figurehead. Smart organizations will realize that social media efforts come from all areas of the organization.
10. As more smart phones such as the iPhone, G1 and Blackberry enter the market, Google will work to control the platforms and mechanisms we use to surf the mobile web. This will lead to Google leading and controlling the mobile advertising market. Expect a big announcement in terms of mobile advertising before June.
11. As more advertisers shift budgets online, the PPC market becomes very crowded. Increased competition over the same keywords mean that companies will need to work on capitalizing (and customizing) every click and customer interaction. Marketers that fail to do this will see click cost and cost-per-acquisition (CPA) begin to erode and eat away their once stable profits.
12. Google project that fails in 2009: Knol
13. Second Life use plummets
